The restructuring of the global value chain, characterized by decentralization, regional agglomeration, green transformation, and security prioritization, is profoundly reshaping the underlying logic of international economic cooperation. As the physical foundation and core hub for the operation of the value chain, the cross-border connectivity needs and cooperation models of infrastructure have undergone systematic changes accordingly. These changes not only give rise to diversified cooperation opportunities but also bring about complex risk challenges, making it a key field to test the strategic coordination and global governance capabilities of various countries.

Ⅰ. New Opportunities for International Infrastructure Cooperation Driven by Global Value Chain Restructuring 

(I) The Explosive Demand for Green and Digital Infrastructure Creates an Incremental Market

The low-carbon transformation of the global value chain has opened up a trillion-dollar market for infrastructure cooperation. With the in-depth implementation of the goals of the Paris Agreement, the demand for green transformation in energy, transportation, and other fields has grown exponentially worldwide, and green infrastructure has shifted from an "optional choice" to a "mandatory requirement". According to the 2024 report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), global investment in renewable energy increased by 12% year-on-year, and the demand for supporting power grid construction for clean energy projects such as wind power and photovoltaic power has surged. Meanwhile, the reshaping of the value chain by digital technology has driven the expansion of demand for smart infrastructure. New types of infrastructure such as 5G base stations, industrial internet, and cross-border data centers have become the core links connecting regional industrial chains. The application of the Internet of Things (IoT) has reduced the logistics cargo damage claim rate by 54%, and the optimization of artificial intelligence has improved transportation efficiency by 30%. This integrated "green + digital" infrastructure has become a new focus of international cooperation. Data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) in 2024 predicts that global infrastructure investment demand will be close to 100 trillion US dollars in the next 10 years, with green and digital infrastructure accounting for more than 60%, providing broad space for international cooperation.

(II) The Integration of Regional Value Chains Drives the Upgrading of Cross-Border Infrastructure Networks

The trend of regional agglomeration of the value chain has significantly increased the demand for coordination of cross-border infrastructure. In North America, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) requires 75% of auto parts to be produced within the region to enjoy zero tariffs, directly driving the construction boom of cross-border railway freight lines and border logistics hubs in North America. In ASEAN, the construction of a regional unified market under the framework of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has accelerated the implementation of projects such as the upgrading of navigation in the Mekong River Basin and the interconnection of the ASEAN power grid, forming a development pattern where "hard connectivity" supports "soft connectivity". This intra-regional infrastructure coordination not only reduces the logistics costs and time costs of the industrial chain but also enhances the resilience of the regional value chain through standard unification and process connection. A 2024 survey by McKinsey showed that 90% of the world's top 500 enterprises plan to enhance supply chain stability through regionalized production layouts, and the perfection of regional infrastructure networks has become a core consideration for enterprises in site selection, further activating the market potential of regional infrastructure cooperation.

(III) The "Belt and Road" Initiative and Multilateral Cooperation Mechanisms Create a Superimposed Effect

As the world's largest international infrastructure cooperation platform, the Belt and Road Initiative has achieved dual upgrades in quality and scale against the backdrop of value chain restructuring. In 2024, China's non-financial direct investment abroad reached 143.85 billion US dollars, an increase of 10.5% year-on-year, among which investment in ASEAN increased by 12.6%, focusing on infrastructure and industrial park projects in Singapore, Indonesia, and other countries. More importantly, the scope of cooperation has expanded from traditional transportation and energy to multiple dimensions such as green infrastructure, digital infrastructure, and livelihood infrastructure. The photovoltaic power stations, low-carbon ports, and other projects promoted by the Belt and Road Green Development International Alliance have covered dozens of countries. At the same time, the participation of multilateral development institutions has continued to increase. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), the New Development Bank, and other institutions have carried out joint financing with the World Bank, innovating the cooperation model of "multilateral coordination + localized implementation", and solving the trust problems and standard connection issues for developing countries in infrastructure financing.

(IV) Innovation in Financing Models Breaks the Bottleneck of Capital Constraints

The traditional government-led financing model can no longer meet the massive infrastructure demand, and diversified financing innovation has become a breakthrough for cooperation. The Public-Private Partnership (PPP) model is widely used in operational projects such as sewage treatment and smart cities, reducing financial pressure through the model of "government guidance + market operation". Green financial instruments have achieved rapid development. Green bonds, climate funds, and other tools have provided long-term capital support for low-carbon infrastructure projects. In 2024, the global issuance of green bonds exceeded 500 billion US dollars, with Belt and Road-related projects accounting for 23%. More breakthroughs have been made in the linkage financing model of "infrastructure + industry". In projects such as the Ethiopian Industrial Park and the China-Belarus Industrial Park, by combining infrastructure construction with industrial investment and technology transfer, a positive cycle of project benefits and industrial development has been realized, significantly improving the return on investment and sustainability.

Ⅱ. Major Challenges of International Infrastructure Cooperation Amid Value Chain Restructuring 

(I) Intensified Geopolitical Games Increase Project Uncertainty

Geopolitics has become the biggest variable affecting international infrastructure cooperation, and the strategic nature of the value chain often turns infrastructure projects into tools for games. Some countries have politicized infrastructure connectivity and obstructed cross-border projects in the name of "national security". Some countries along the China-Europe Railway Express have implemented temporary controls in the name of "customs security inspections", leading to a fluctuation of more than 40% in transportation timeliness. Great power competition has further exposed projects to the risk of campization. The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act requires new energy vehicle tax credits to be tied to the North American supply chain, forcing BYD and other enterprises to add 1.5 billion US dollars in investment to adjust the supply chain of their Mexican factories. The EU's Critical Raw Materials Act restricts non-member enterprises from participating in upstream projects of its new energy infrastructure through local production capacity requirements. This "campization" tendency not only increases the coordination costs of projects but also may lead to the fragmentation of the global infrastructure network, which runs counter to the objective needs of value chain integration.

(II) Debt Risks and Financing Sustainability Challenges Are Prominent

The characteristics of large investment scale and long cycle of infrastructure projects have amplified debt risks against the backdrop of global economic fluctuations. Most of the co-building countries of the Belt and Road have weak economic foundations and underdeveloped financial markets, and government financial funds are difficult to support large-scale projects. Since 2020, many countries such as Pakistan and Zambia have fallen into debt distress due to the epidemic, energy price fluctuations, and other factors, and have had to apply for debt relief and repayment extensions. The traditional "F + EPC" contracting model relies too much on government loans and lacks a diversified risk-sharing mechanism. When the host country faces a debt crisis, investors will suffer severe losses. More seriously, some countries have politicized the debt issue and hyped up the "debt trap theory", which not only affects the progress of existing projects but also weakens the confidence of new investors, forming a vicious cycle of "debt concerns - investment withdrawal - development lag".

(III) Standard Differences and Rule Conflicts Increase Cooperation Costs

The globalization of the value chain and the regionalization of rules have formed sharp contradictions, resulting in infrastructure projects facing multiple standard constraints. In terms of technical standards, there are differences between European and American standards and local standards in fields such as electricity and communications. A cross-border power grid project in Southeast Asia incurred an additional transformation cost of 120 million US dollars due to the adoption of different voltage standards. In terms of environmental standards, environmental protection policies vary greatly among countries. Chinese enterprises have encountered local disputes in mineral supporting infrastructure projects in Myanmar, the Republic of the Congo, and other countries due to differences in the understanding of environmental protection standards. Rule conflicts are more reflected in the legal and regulatory aspects. The investment laws of some countries change frequently, and there is a lack of stability in key issues such as land expropriation and profit repatriation. A Chinese-funded enterprise in a South American highway project saw its profits shrink by 35% due to the adjustment of the host country's tax law. The inconsistency of standards and rules forces enterprises to bear high compliance costs and adaptation costs, which seriously erodes project profits.

(IV) Insufficient Supply Chain Security and Industrial Supporting Capacity

The restructuring of the value chain places higher requirements on the autonomy of the infrastructure industrial chain, while the vulnerability of the global infrastructure supply chain has become increasingly prominent. The problem of "stuck necks" in key equipment and core technologies is prominent. China still relies on imports for some high-end tunnel boring machines and smart grid control systems. Under the technical restrictions of Europe and the United States, a central Asian power grid upgrading project was delayed by 8 months due to the inability to obtain core chips. The fluctuation of strategic resource supply is even more disruptive. For key minerals such as lithium and cobalt required for new energy infrastructure, China's external dependence exceeds 60%, and the export control policies of major producing countries such as Australia and Chile have exposed projects to the risk of sharp increases in raw material prices. For developing countries, insufficient industrial supporting capacity has become a bottleneck for cooperation. In a photovoltaic project in Africa, 90% of the components need to be imported from China, and the lack of local assembly and operation and maintenance capabilities has led to an increase of more than 20% in the later maintenance costs of the project.

(V) Differences in ESG Standards Pose Compliance Challenges

Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) has become an important threshold for international infrastructure cooperation, but there is no unified global standard, bringing compliance confusion to enterprises. The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to be implemented by the EU will impose a carbon tax on infrastructure raw materials such as steel and aluminum. It is expected to make Chinese steel enterprises pay an additional cost of about 50 euros per ton for exports to Europe, and the profit margin of the six high-carbon industries may be reduced by 3-8 percentage points. The differences in social standards are more complex. The requirements for labor rights and community participation vary greatly among different countries. A hydropower station project in Southeast Asia was suspended for two years due to insufficient consideration of the water resource demands of the local community, triggering protests. Some Western countries have politicized ESG standards and set "thresholds" higher than international general standards, which essentially form new trade barriers and increase the difficulty for developing countries to participate in international cooperation.

Ⅲ. Path Choices for Addressing Challenges and Seizing Opportunities

To address the opportunities and challenges brought about by the restructuring of the global value chain, it is necessary to build a new system of international infrastructure cooperation featuring "strategic coordination, rule connection, risk sharing, and innovation-driven". At the strategic level, we should adhere to multilateralism, promote the alignment of the Belt and Road Initiative with regional mechanisms such as the RCEP and the ASEAN Connectivity Master Plan, and avoid camp confrontation. At the rule level, we should accelerate the formulation of international standards in fields such as green infrastructure and digital infrastructure, and promote the establishment of a coordination mechanism of "unified basic standards and compatible specific standards". At the risk management level, we should improve the debt sustainability framework, promote the "debt suspension repayment clause", and develop diversified financing tools to spread risks. At the capacity-building level, we should enhance the industrial supporting capacity of host countries through technology transfer and talent training, and realize the goal of "joint construction and shared benefits".

The restructuring of the global value chain is both a challenge and an opportunity. As the "hardware support" of the value chain, the development quality of international infrastructure cooperation is directly related to global economic recovery and sustainable development. Only by breaking through geopolitical barriers and solving the bottlenecks of rules and funds can we fully release the growth potential of infrastructure cooperation, build a global infrastructure network with strong resilience, high efficiency, and sustainability, and provide a solid guarantee for the stable operation and inclusive development of the value chain.