Ⅰ.Overview of the Current Situation

The domestic waste incineration market has entered a mature stage, with fierce competition. According to relevant data, by the end of 2024, the national waste incineration treatment capacity soared to 850,000 tons per day, exceeding the target of the "14th Five-Year Plan". The incineration rate in first-tier cities generally exceeded 80%. Fierce competition has triggered price wars among enterprises, ruthlessly squeezing profit margins. In stark contrast, overseas markets show huge development potential, like an unexploited blue ocean. The latest data shows that as of June 2025, Chinese enterprises have successfully won 43 waste incineration projects overseas, distributed in 13 countries, with a total treatment scale of 57,700 tons per day. This scale is equivalent to twice the annual production capacity of Shanghai Environment, a leading domestic enterprise. Take Vietnam alone, its waste incineration scale has exceeded 12,000 tons per day, and a single project in Uzbekistan has a treatment capacity of up to 7,000 tons per day, far exceeding the demand scale of domestic county-level cities.

Ⅱ.Analysis of the Background for Going Global

ⅰ.Saturation of the Domestic Market

In recent years, with the promotion of source reduction measures for raw waste and the advanced planning of waste incineration power plants, the domestic waste incineration power generation market has gradually become saturated. Data from the Ministry of Ecology and Environment shows that as of October 2024, the number of incineration enterprises nationwide reached 1,010, with 2,172 incinerators and an incineration capacity of approximately 1.11 million tons per day. Compared with China's first waste power station in 1985 (Shenzhen, with a daily treatment capacity of 300 tons), although a huge leap has been achieved, the problem of overcapacity has also emerged. Many regional waste incineration power plants are "underfed". For example, the daily treatment capacity of the Xianyang project in Shaanxi is 1,500 tons, but the actual daily waste production in the main urban area is only 800 tons; the Jiaxiang project in Shandong has a designed capacity of 1,000 tons/day, but the actual furnace input is only 48.1% of the designed scale. In 2023, national waste incineration power plants had 83,467 "scheduled shutdowns", and some incinerators were even idle for more than half a year. In the first half of 2024, the scale of newly bid waste incineration power generation projects continued to decline. From January to June, 10 projects were bid, all with a treatment scale of less than 500 tons/day, with a cumulative new capacity of 0.360,000 tons/day, a year-on-year decrease of 77%. The domestic waste incineration market is saturated, new projects are decreasing, and enterprise construction revenue has plummeted.

ⅱ.Huge Potential in Overseas Markets

In contrast, overseas markets, especially in Southeast Asia, Central Asia and other regions, have broad market space. Southeast Asia is densely populated, and with the rapid advancement of urbanization, the amount of garbage generated has increased sharply. For example, the daily garbage volume in Manila, the Philippines, reaches 13,000 tons, but the incineration rate is less than 5%; the landfill in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, is on the verge of being full, and new incineration facilities are urgently needed. Moreover, the waste treatment methods in these regions are relatively rough, and there is great room for improvement in the incineration treatment rate. The waste incineration treatment rates in Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand and other countries are relatively low. It is estimated that the five ASEAN countries still need to add about 153,700 tons/day of incineration treatment capacity, with an investment space of about 76.8 billion yuan. Although Central Asia started late, some countries have begun to attach importance to waste incineration treatment. Countries such as Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan have introduced policies to promote project construction.

Ⅲ.Layout and Achievements of Chinese Enterprises Overseas

ⅰ.Key Regional Layout

Southeast Asia and Central Asia have become the "main battlefields" for the overseas layout of Chinese waste incineration enterprises. In the first five months of 2025, Chinese enterprises signed 16 waste incineration projects overseas, with a total scale exceeding 30,000 tons/day, of which Central Asia accounted for 65.68%. As a populous country in Central Asia (with a population of 30 million), Uzbekistan has 落地 (put into operation) 4 projects within the year, with a total scale of 12,000 tons/day. In Southeast Asia, countries such as Indonesia, Vietnam, and Malaysia have an incineration rate of less than 10%, showing huge market potential. Vietnam implements a 20-year concession right for waste incineration power generation projects, with waste treatment fees as high as 80-120 US dollars/ton, attracting many Chinese enterprises to settle in. Thailand has clearly required that the waste incineration rate be increased to 60% by 2030, triggering a market scale of over 100 billion yuan.

ⅱ.Typical Enterprises and Project Achievements

Leading enterprises such as Canhng Environment, Everbright Environment, and China Tianying have achieved remarkable results in overseas markets. Everbright Environment has successfully won three incineration projects in Vietnam, including the Can Tho project and the Hue project, with total investment of approximately 47 million US dollars and 74.55 million US dollars respectively. China Tianying has implemented multiple projects in Vietnam, Singapore, India and other countries. Among them, the Hanoi project in Vietnam has a treatment scale of 4,000 tons/day, with a total investment of 350 million US dollars, a waste treatment fee of 80 US dollars/ton, and a payment cycle of only 1 month (the domestic average is 3 months). Canhng Environment has cumulatively signed 13 overseas projects, covering Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Uzbekistan and other countries, with a total treatment scale of 16,300 tons/day, accounting for 36.5% of the total overseas production capacity of Chinese enterprises. Its Xinshengyi project in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, with a daily treatment capacity of 3,000 tons, adopts the BOT model (Build-Operate-Transfer) and a concession period of 25 years; the Navoi project in Uzbekistan has a treatment scale of 7,000 tons/day and is the first modern waste incineration power plant in the country.

Ⅳ.Competitive Advantages of Chinese Waste Incineration Enterprises

ⅰ.Mature and Advanced Technology

After years of development, China's waste incineration technology has been continuously innovated and reached the international advanced level. The complex composition of domestic waste has prompted the technology to have stronger adaptability, which can effectively handle various types of waste and has rich application scenarios. Compared with countries such as Europe, America and Japan, China's technology is updated and iterated rapidly, and can be flexibly adjusted according to different needs. Many large domestic waste incineration power plants, such as Guangzhou East (Fushan) Domestic Waste Incineration Power Plant (9,300 tons/day), Shanghai Laogang Domestic Waste Incineration Power Plant (9,000 tons/day), Shenzhen East Domestic Waste Incineration Power Plant (5,000 tons/day), etc., not only have a large treatment scale, but also have a high waste heat utilization rate.

ⅱ.Remarkable Cost Advantages

Chinese waste incineration enterprises have obvious cost advantages, with excellent cost control in technology research and development, equipment production, project construction and operation. Compared with European and American enterprises, the construction cost of Chinese enterprises is only one-third of theirs. In the field of equipment manufacturing, China has a complete industrial chain, sufficient supply of components, and relatively low prices. During project construction, labor costs have obvious advantages, and efficient management models further reduce costs. In regions such as Southeast Asia and Central Asia, Chinese enterprises stand out in project bidding by virtue of their cost advantages.

ⅲ.Strong Policy Support

The "Belt and Road" Initiative provides solid policy support for Chinese waste incineration enterprises to go global. Countries along the route actively respond and strengthen cooperation with China in the field of environmental protection, creating a favorable investment environment for enterprises. Some countries have listed waste incineration as a national strategy and introduced policies such as waste treatment fee subsidies and preferential on-grid electricity prices, such as Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia and other countries, to attract Chinese enterprises to invest in construction. The Chinese government encourages enterprises to "go global" and provides support in finance, taxation and other aspects to help enterprises expand overseas markets.

Ⅴ.Challenges Faced in Going Global

ⅰ.Technical Access and Standard Differences

Some countries have technical access restrictions and put forward requirements for the country of origin of equipment. For example, a project in Vietnam requires equipment to be originated from G7 countries, which increases the difficulty for Chinese enterprises to enter. There are significant differences in waste incineration standards among different countries, which vary from those in China in terms of pollutant emission standards and incineration process requirements. Enterprises need to invest more costs in technical transformation and equipment adjustment to meet local standards. In some European countries, the restrictions on pollutants such as dioxins emitted from waste incineration are extremely strict, so Chinese enterprises need to optimize technical processes to ensure compliant emissions.

ⅱ.Political Situation and Exchange Rate Risks

Political instability and frequent policy changes in some overseas markets affect project promotion and operation. In some African and Latin American countries, for example, regime changes may hinder the execution of project contracts. Exchange rate fluctuations also cause economic losses to enterprises. Overseas projects have a long investment cycle, during which exchange rate changes are difficult to predict. Although most enterprises choose to cooperate with local companies and price in US dollars to avoid exchange rate risks, uncertainties still exist. In some emerging economies, currency depreciation may shrink corporate income and increase cost burdens.

ⅲ.Project Landing and Operational Challenges

Overseas projects involve many links such as local policies, regulations, and approvals, with complex processes, leading to slow project implementation. In terms of land acquisition, environmental assessment approval, etc., there may be long waits and uncertainties. The infrastructure in some countries is weak. For example, the power transmission network is imperfect, affecting the power output and revenue of waste incineration power generation projects. In some remote areas, inconvenient transportation increases the difficulty of equipment transportation and raw material supply, raising operating costs.

ⅳ.Pressures Brought by ESG Requirements

The international community is paying increasing attention to ESG (Environmental, Social, and Corporate Governance), and overseas markets have strict requirements for enterprises' ESG performance. In project construction and operation, enterprises need to comply with local environmental protection regulations to reduce impacts on the surrounding environment; pay attention to social livelihood, protect the rights and interests of local employees, and actively participate in community construction; improve corporate governance structures and enhance transparency. If an enterprise has poor ESG performance, it may face risks such as damaged reputation and project obstacles. In European and American markets, investors and consumers pay great attention to enterprises' ESG reports, so enterprises need to invest more resources to improve ESG performance.

Ⅵ.Future Outlook

Despite the numerous challenges faced by Chinese waste incineration enterprises in overseas markets, the prospects remain broad. As global environmental awareness continues to rise, the demand for waste treatment will grow sustainably, providing more opportunities for Chinese enterprises.

Enterprises should continuously increase investment in technological R&D, enhance technical capabilities and adaptability, break through technical access barriers, and meet the regulatory requirements of different countries. Strengthen cooperation with local enterprises to deeply understand local markets, policies, regulations, and cultural customs, so as to reduce risks in project implementation and operation. Attach importance to ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) construction to establish a positive corporate image and enhance international competitiveness.

The government should continue to strengthen policy support, build collaborative platforms, and create more favorable conditions for enterprises to "go global". It is expected that Chinese waste incineration enterprises will achieve greater breakthroughs in overseas markets in the future, driving the development of the global waste treatment industry and realizing mutual benefit and win-win outcomes.